All the ways pollsters and the media were wrong, wrong, wrong

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by nypost.com -- They blew it again. After muffing it spectacularly in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was supposed to cruise to easy victory over Donald Trump, pollsters and the media should be ashamed by how wrong they got this year’s election. Even after their cross-their-hearts-hope-to-die promises to fix flaws in their methodology — which always errs in their preferred, liberal direction. Like Clinton, Joe Biden was supposed to be a sure winner — possibly in a landslide victory over President Trump. Polling “guru” Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a whopping 89 percent chance of winning. RealClearPolitics’ compilation of polls showed Biden with an average 7.2 percentage-point national lead; some polls had the spread in the double digits at various times. In the top battleground states, Biden averaged a 2.3-point lead, according to RCP. Analysts talked of a “blue wave” — with Democrats winning the Senate as well as the White House, and gaining dozens of seats for their House majority. The message, amplified by a feverishly anti-Trump, left-leaning media, was clear: Donald Trump was toast, a one-term president who’d drag the whole party down. Count on it. And it sure is about time. Ha! It’ll be days, maybe weeks, before the vote counts are finalized, and Biden may win — but it’s clear the pollsters couldn’t have been more off. Again.

Their predictions weren’t just wrong — but often wildly so. As of Wednesday morning, Biden had a mere 1.9-percentage point lead over Trump; the prez had a good chance of prevailing overall in electoral votes. Before Election Day, the ABC-Washington Post poll gave Biden a whopping 17-point lead in Wisconsin; on Wednesday, his lead was 0.6 percent. “That’s not a mistake. That’s not an error,” noted pollster Frank Luntz. “That’s polling malpractice, and you have to go to tremendous lengths to be able to get something that wrong so close to the election.” Similarly, Quinnipiac had Biden with a five-point margin in Florida and four points in Ohio; Trump wound up ahead in both states — by three and eight points, respectively. So much for a Biden blowout. Republicans also seem likely to retain control of the Senate, with Democrats having picked up just one net seat by Wednesday morning, and several “endangered” GOP seats proving safe. And Dems lost House seats in New Mexico, Florida and Oklahoma that they picked up in 2018. What went wrong with the polling? Some possible explanations stand out. One of the biggest may be that Trump voters have given up on mainstream media and polling. Yes, it may be “shy voters” in some places it’s considered uncouth to like him, but many others are actively hostile to the institutions that have ignored and insulted them. They show up in droves at Trump rallies and “Donvoys,” but they don’t answer the phone to answer questions. Will these mistakes make pollsters change their ways? Will the media show any humility in the face of again misjudging Trump and his voters? The answer, alas, is probably no. But they aren’t the only ones with egg on their faces:

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Joe diGenova to Newsmax TV: GOP Senate Results a 'Miracle'

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by newsmax -- Former U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Joe diGenova on Wednesday called it a "miracle" the Republicans appeared to have retained their control of the U.S. Senate, saying it would be the "bulwark against crazy government" if Joe Biden ultimately claims the presidency. Speaking to Newsmax TV, diGenova referred to the fact Republicans on Tuesday had twice as many seats to defend (23) than Democrats (12), due to the 2014 landslide that saw the party flip the Senate from 53-45 Democratic-controlled chamber to a 54-44 GOP-controlled body. "This is such a miracle that the Republicans were able to maintain control of the Senate that it's really a blessing," the 75-year-old diGenova told "Stinchfield." "Because this now stops tax increases, the repeal of the Trump tax cut, and again, I still haven't given up hope that President [Donald] Trump can pull this out, and win, but in the unfortunate event that he cannot, the Senate will be the bulwark against crazy government and socialist government. "They'll never be able to get the tax increases. They'll never be able to get huge defense cuts. And then we're going to have the fight over executive orders by Joe Biden where he tries to do everything by executive order. That's going to be the next big battle, if Biden becomes president."

Republicans held a 53-45 advantage over Democrats – not including two independents that vote with them – entering Tuesday's election. A predicted "blue wave" that supposedly threatened Republican stalwarts Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., never materialized. Democrats appeared to have taken two of the 23 seats Republicans were defending. John Hickenlooper defeated incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., and Mark Kelly upended incumbent Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz. But Republican and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville defeated incumbent Sen. Doug Jones, R-Ala., leaving the Democrats with apparently a net gain of only one seat.

Lebanon decides not to charge Ghosn over Israel trip

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by AFP -- BEIRUT: Lebanon’s prosecutor general decided Tuesday not to charge fugitive ex-auto tycoon Carlos Ghosn for visiting Israel in 2008 because the statute of limitations has expired, a judicial source said. Three lawyers filed a motion in January calling for the 66-year-old businessman to be prosecuted over his trip to the Jewish state as Renault-Nissan chairman. Lebanon is technically still at war with Israel and forbids its citizens from traveling there. “Prosecutor general Ghassan Oueidat decided ... not to prosecute Ghosn for the crimes attributed to him of entering the enemy country and dealing with it economically,” the source told AFP. “A statute of limitations of ten years had passed since the alleged crime,” the source added.

Ghosn on Jan. 8 apologized to the Lebanese people for having visited Israel to sign a deal to produce electric vehicles, saying he traveled on business for Renault on a French passport. He also holds Lebanese and Brazilian nationalities. The ex-Nissan chief was arrested in Japan in November 2018 on financial misconduct charges and spent 130 days in detention, before he jumped bail and smuggled himself out of the country late last year. Ghosn appeared at a press conference in Lebanon on Jan. 8, denying all charges and claiming he was a victim of a plot by Nissan and Japanese officials.

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Hezbollah, Gebran Bassil under fire over Lebanese government paralysis

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by arabnews.com -- NAJIA HOUSSARI -- BEIRUT: Frustration mounted in Lebanon on Sunday amid continuing paralysis in the formation of a new government, with fingers pointed at the Iran-backed Hezbollah group and Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil as the source of the blockage. Eleven days after former prime minister Saad Hariri was asked to resume office and assemble an administration of non-party technocrats, no date has even been set for a meeting with President Michel Aoun. “We do not know if the obstructing parties actually want to form a government. It is about party quotas again, regarding the number of ministers and the rotation of portfolios,” senior Hariri adviser Hussein Al-Wajh told Arab News. Dr. Mustafa Alloush, a leading figure in Hariri’s Future Movement, told Arab News: “The main obstacle to forming a government is Gebran Bassil, who has returned to his old demands.”

Hariri resigned as prime minister in October 2019 amid a wave of public protests over financial corruption, government ineptitude and a collapsing economy. Neither of his successors, Hassan Diab and Mustapha Adib, was able to restore stability, and Lebanon has been without a government since September. At the prompting of French President Emmanuel Macron, Hariri offered to lead a technocratic Cabinet in an initiative seen as opening the door to desperately needed international aid and a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Former minister Ahmed Fatfat told Arab News: “Hariri’s project is a mini-government of specialists, which would not be against anyone or against the country, but Hezbollah stands behind the play of Gebran Bassil.”

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Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Accuses Politicians of 'Killing The Country's People'

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“The political authority has killed its people economically, financially and in terms of living and development, and has thrown them into a state of loss and anger, despair and revolution, emigration and survival,” Rai said in his sermon. “The political community must acknowledge its failure to represent the citizens and gain their trust ... then step down for the sake of Lebanon, even if only temporarily,” Rai said. Rai called for the swift formation of a government based on the constitution, stressing that “Any other government is a waste of time.” Lebanon has been left without a fully functioning government since caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab submitted his Cabinet’s resignation on Aug. 10 over the port blast, which killed at least 200 people and injured thousands. Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, along with President Michel Aoun, is putting the final touches to a draft Cabinet lineup in hopes of announcing the government formation over the weekend or early next week. The new government would be tasked with implementing a string of reforms outlined in the French initiative, designed to steer the crises-hit country out of its catastrophic economic and financial crunch, the worst since the 1975-90 Civil War.

Israeli jets and warship violate Lebanese territory

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by dailystar.com.lb -- BEIRUT: Israeli jets and a warship crossed into Lebanese territory in the country’s south Sunday, days after the conclusion of a large scale Israeli military drill that was supposed to simulate war with Hezbollah. The Lebanese Army said in a statement Sunday that an Israeli warship had crossed into Lebanon’s territorial waters in the early hours of the morning near Naqoura. The ship is said to have reportedly fired warning sirens after crossing 200 meters over the border. The Lebanese Army stated it was following up on the incident in coordination with UNIFIL forces. Israeli jets were also seen flying at low altitudes over much of southern Lebanon, including Hasbaya, Arqoub, Jabal al-Sheikh, Shebaa Farms, Nabatiyeh and Iqlim al-Tuffah. They were also seen as far north as Metn, according to the state-run National News Agency. An Israeli MK-type reconnaissance drone reportedly also conducted flybys over the area.

Israeli launched a largescale military drill earlier last week simulating war with Hezbollah, which has seen the participation of thousands of troops. Hezbollah reportedly drafted in extra reservists to the southern border at the time in response, a Lebanese security source told The Daily Star. This military drill came as Lebanon and Israel, still technically at war, concluded a second round of border talks Thursday under UN and US supervision that will allow for offshore energy exploration. The talks have so far been shrouded in secrecy, with little information emerging on their progress. Amid the worst economic crisis since the Civil War, Lebanon is hoping to settle the maritime border dispute so that it can continue searching for hydrocarbon reserves in the Mediterranean. The talks are set to resume Nov. 11.

The source estimated that the chances of success of the talks being mediated by the United States are less than 50% after the second round of unprecedented negotiations ended Thursday between the two countries that have no diplomatic relations.