These are the up-and-coming princes poised to take control in Saudi Arabia

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by Simon Henderson, Foreign Policy  Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appears to be shredding our understanding about how Saudi Arabia is ruled. Seeking to consolidate his power, he threw caution and consensus-building — the traditional techniques of Saudi leadership — out the window months ago, proceeding instead with almost reckless speed and an apparent disregard for winning the support of his uncles and numerous cousins. The arrests last weekend of a reported 11 princes on charges of corruption suggests the royal family, the House of Saud, is no longer above the law. The commentary over Mohammed bin Salman’s recent moves has been divided between predictions that he is leading the country toward dictatorship or toward family revolt. But a careful examination of Mohammed bin Salman’s actions and statements over the last year suggest that he is more calculating than impetuous. The Saudi attorney general said this week that the corruption investigations had been going on for three years, while Mohammed bin Salman mentioned the wide-ranging crackdown on corruption in a May interview. “I assure you that any person involved in a corruption case, whether minister, prince, or whatever, will not escape,” he said. Meanwhile, since April, Mohammed bin Salman, now 32, has been quietly orchestrating the appointments of a range of young princes in their late twenties or thirties to positions of power. They will likely be crucial to the success of his remodeling of the kingdom and could emerge as arbiters of power for decades to come. They are all either the grandsons or great grandsons of the kingdom’s founder, Ibn Saud, who died in 1953. Mohammed bin Salman is entirely prudent in promoting these younger cousins, appealing to their ambition and vanity, and securing their loyalty. It is a good way of internalizing any competition between family lines — Ibn Saud had more than 40 sons, and the number of grandsons is in the hundreds. Mohammed bin Salman’s actions have so far forestalled a collective family revolt, proving once again the utility of that old adage: divide and conquer. As in all monarchies, bloodline is often more important than competence for prospective leaders in Saudi Arabia. Mohammed bin Salman probably wants to promote talent — but will also be paying attention to how to deflect resentment or the hint of opposition. Promoting sons can take some of the pain out of fathers being sidelined. The House of Saud has witnessed difficult transitions before. What’s different this time is that age is no longer equivalent to seniority and instead may have become a handicap. Comparative youth necessarily means a relative lack of experience but that is a risk which Mohammed bin Salman seems to have decided he can handl

Khalid bin Salman, the Saudi ambassador to the United States, sits in a fighter jet at an air base, in the Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia, in this undated handout photo provided by Saudi Royal Court. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTE

Here's who to watch

The young up-and-coming princes to watch are (in alphabetical order)

Abdulaziz bin Fahd is a great-grandson of Ibn Saud and deputy governor of the Jawf region, bordering Jordan, since June 2017. His father, a soldier, was made commander of Saudi ground forces in April 2017.

Faisal bin Sattam was appointed ambassador to Italy in June 2017. He had shown early sympathy for the rise of Mohammed bin Salman: As a member of the Allegiance Council (the grouping of senior family members), he voted against Prince Muqrin becoming deputy crown prince in 2014, an early sign of belonging to the Salman camp. (Muqrin became crown prince on King Abdullah’s death in January 2015 but was replaced by King Salman three months later. The late King Abdullah is reported to have schemed to replace Muqrin with Salman, thereby creating an opening as crown prince for the king’s son Miteb, who was sacked as national guard minister last weekend and is one of those detained.)

Abdulaziz bin Saud is the 30-year-old interior minister, appointed in June 2017. He replaced his full uncle and the then-crown prince, Muhammad bin Nayef, who was forced to resign. Abdulaziz bin Saud’s father is governor of the oil-rich Eastern Province, where Saudi Shiites form a local majority. His new powers were curtailed within days of his appointment by the transfer of some of his responsibilities to a new state security organization. If he was upset, he didn’t show it publicly.

Abdulaziz bin Turki, 34, is deputy chairman of the General Sport Authority, appointed June 2017. His father, Turki bin Faisal, served as ambassador in Washington and London, as well as head of the kingdom’s external intelligence body, the General Intelligence Presidency. Of late, Turki bin Faisal has engaged in public discussions with former Israeli officials.

Ahmed bin Fahd, a great-grandson of Ibn Saud, was appointed deputy governor of the Eastern Province in April 2017. His father, who had been deputy governor of the Eastern Province from 1986 to 1993, died in 2001.

Bandar bin Khalid, 52, was appointed advisor to the royal court in June 2017. His father is governor of Mecca Province

Khalid bin Bandar was appointed ambassador to Germany in June 2017. He is the Oxford-educated son of Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the former ambassador to the United States who cultivated ties with multiple American presidents

Khalid bin Salman, 29, was appointed as the Saudi ambassador to Washington this year. He is a former F-15 pilot and full brother of Mohammed bin Salman.

Saud bin Khalid was appointed deputy governor of Medina in April 201

Turki bin Muhammad, 38, was appointed advisor to the royal court in June 2017. His father, a son of the late King Fahd, was governor of the Eastern Province from 1985 to 2013.

A prince who just a week ago would have made this list was Mansour bin Muqrin, the deputy governor of Asir Province who was killed a helicopter crash on Nov. 5. He had served as deputy governor since 2013 and was made advisor to King Salman in April 2015, when his father was pushed from the position of crown prince. There is considerable speculation that he disliked Mohammed bin Salman, which is plausible because his father had been sidelined. An additional rumor is that his death was not accidental, for which, as yet, there is no evidence.

King Salman of Saudi Arabia. Reuters/Carlo Allegri

Here's who is missing

This list of princes is also notable for who is absent. It does not include any sons or grandsons of the late King Abdullah, and only one grandson of King Fahd. Any direct relatives of Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, one of the so-called Sudairi Seven, are also absent. The omission is easily explicable: Ahmad is thought to have voted in the Allegiance Council against the appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince in June this year. Mohammed bin Salman clearly sees himself, and is seen by his father, as the next king of Saudi Arabia. The latest rumor is that the change may happen as soon as this weekend. Traditionally, the success of his transition would depend as much as anything on acceptance and support in the wider royal family, but Mohammed bin Salman’s impatience and ambition suggest that won’t be an option. Instead, his authority will rely on the backing of those in this list. Another group that could prove crucial is princes in the military. These are harder to identify and are essentially in their positions to stop coups. A 1985 State Department cable released by WikiLeaks is rather dated but provides a good overview. “The mere presence of princes in the Armed Forces provides some degree of stability to the Al Saud regime,” it concludes. King Salman is thought to see Mohammed bin Salman as a modern-day Ibn Saud, a potentially great leader with huge ambition, and much more promising than any other, older potential contenders for the throne. But even Mohammed bin Salman appears to realize that, in order to transform his kingdom’s economy and cope with the challenges of regional chaos, he must be the leader of a royal team. Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Read the original article on Foreign Policy. "Real World. Real Time." Follow Foreign Policy on Facebook. Subscribe to Foreign Policy here. Copyright 2017. Follow Foreign Policy on Twitter.

Lebanese president presses Saudi to say why Hariri has not returned

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by Ellen Francis  BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon’s president called on Saudi Arabia on Saturday to clarify why Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri could not return home, a week after he stunned his country by resigning while in the kingdom. A senior Lebanese official said President Michel Aoun had told foreign ambassadors Hariri had been “kidnapped” and should have immunity. Hariri’s shock resignation has thrust Lebanon back into the frontline of a power struggle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi‘ite Iran - a rivalry that has wrought upheaval in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Bahrain. .

“Lebanon does not accept its prime minister being in a situation at odds with international treaties,” Aoun said in a statement. He said any comment or move by Hariri “does not reflect reality” due to the questions over his status following his resignation in a broadcast from Saudi Arabia. Lebanese authorities believe Riyadh is detaining Hariri who flew to Saudi Arabia on Nov. 3, two top Lebanese government officials, a senior politician close to Hariri and a fourth source have said. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed similar concerns, saying in a call with Aoun on Saturday that “Lebanese political leaders should enjoy freedom of movement”. Macron, who made an unscheduled visit to Riyadh earlier this week, will receive the Lebanese foreign minister in Paris on Tuesday, the Elysee statement said. Riyadh says Hariri is free and decided to resign because Iran’s Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, was calling the shots in his coalition government.

Hariri has made no public remarks since quitting last week, when he said he feared assassination and accused Iran along with Hezbollah of sowing strife in the Arab world. Hariri, whose family made its fortune in the Saudi construction industry, has also given no sign of when he might return to Beirut. The Lebanese premier took part in a ceremony in Riyadh on Saturday welcoming Saudi King Salman from Medina, his media office said. Hariri met with the Turkish and British ambassadors at his Riyadh home in the afternoon, it said. Sources close to Hariri say Saudi Arabia has concluded that the prime minister - a long-time Saudi ally - had to go because he was unwilling to confront Hezbollah. His phone was confiscated after he arrived in Riyadh, and the next day he was forced to resign on a Saudi TV channel, senior sources close to Hariri and top Lebanese political and security officials said.

Aoun wants Saudi Arabia, “with which we have brotherly ties and deeply rooted friendship, to clarify the reasons preventing Prime Minister Hariri’s return,” his office said. France and other Western countries have looked on with alarm at the rising tensions in the region. “We would like Saad al-Hariri to have all his freedom of movement and be fully able to play the essential role that is his in Lebanon,” a French foreign ministry spokesman said on Friday. Hariri’s resignation unraveled a political deal among Lebanon’s rival factions that made him prime minister and Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, president last year. The coalition government included Shi‘ite Hezbollah, a heavily armed military and political organization. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Friday that Saudi had declared war on Lebanon and his group, accusing Riyadh of forcing Hariri to resign to destabilize Lebanon. The comments mirrored an accusation by Riyadh earlier this week that Lebanon and Hezbollah had declared war on the Gulf Arab kingdom. Hariri’s political party denounced on Saturday Iranian intervention in Arab countries and attacks against Saudi Arabia. The Future Movement party said it stands by the premier and was “waiting impatiently for his return to Lebanon to handle his national responsibilities in leading this stage.” In a statement, the United States called Hariri “a trusted partner” and referred to him as prime minister. The White House “rejects any efforts by militias within Lebanon or by any foreign forces to threaten Lebanon’s stability ... or use Lebanon as a base from which to threaten others in the region,” it said. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had told reporters on Friday there was no indication Hariri was being held against his will but that the United States was monitoring the situation. The resignation of Hariri comes amid an anti-corruption purge in Riyadh in which dozens of senior princes and businessmen have been rounded up. Additional reporting by Laila Bassam; Editing by Richard Balmforth and Hugh Lawson

Lebanese PM's allies believe Saudi Arabia is restricting his movement

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By Tamara Qiblawi, Angela Dewan and Schams Elwazer, CNN - Beirut (CNN)Lebanon's government believes Saudi Arabia is restricting the movement and communications of its Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a high-level ministerial source told CNN on Friday. The source said Hariri "isn't expressing himself freely" with the Lebanese government and that his own political bloc -- which is usually aligned with Saudi interests -- had "no idea what's going on." Speculation has swirled this week that Saudi Arabia is holding Hariri against his will after he said he was resigning in a televised address from the Saudi capital Riyadh, last Saturday. The remarks are likely to further rattle officials in Riyadh, who have denied forcing Hariri to resign or placing him under house arrest. Hariri holds dual Lebanese-Saudi citizenship and has a residence in Riyadh.

Hariri's office said he had received the Italian and Russian ambassadors to Saudi Arabia in his Riyadh residence on Friday, after questions were raised over his whereabouts. Hariri's sudden departure has plunged Lebanon into a political crisis and stoked fears of a conflict, either with Saudi Arabia, which is increasingly agitated by Iran's ascendancy in the region, or Israel, which shares Saudi's fears about Iran even if it does not support Riyadh in public.

Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia has a centuries-old rivalry with Shia-led Iran, and Lebanon is fast becoming the new setting for a proxy conflict between the two Middle Eastern powers. Hariri's Future Movement party had earlier demanded its leader's safe return, saying it was "necessary to restore consideration and respect" to Lebanon. Lebanese President Michel Aoun also demanded Hariri's return in a meeting with Saudi charge d'affaires Walid Bukhari on Friday, the official Lebanese National News Agency reported. "The way in which Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned was unacceptable," he said. He added he would not accept Hariri's resignation until he returns.

Hariri's shock resignation Saturday has left many questions unanswered, and diplomats have tried to seek answers from Riyadh. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said he had spoken to Foreign Minister al-Jubeir, who assured him Thursday that Hariri had himself made the decided to resign. Tillerson on Friday warned against foreign elements intervening in Lebanon's affairs, adding Hariri was "a strong partner of the United States." "The United States supports the stability of Lebanon and is opposed to any actions that could threaten that stability. There is no legitimate place or role in Lebanon for any foreign forces, militias or armed elements other than the legitimate security forces of the Lebanese state -- which must be recognized as the sole authority for security in Lebanon. "The United States cautions against any party, within or outside Lebanon, using Lebanon as a venue for proxy conflicts or in any manner contributing to instability in that country." US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told journalists on Thursday that the US charge d'affaires to Saudi Arabia, Chris Henzel, had met Hariri on Wednesday. When asked what conditions he was being held in, she said: "I would have to refer you to the government of Saudi Arabia and also to Mr. Hariri's office." French President Emmanuel Macron made an unscheduled trip to Riyadh on Thursday night and met with Saudi officials. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Macron was invited by the Saudis, and that France believed Hariri had freedom of movement. He pointed out that Hariri had been able to travel to Abu Dhabi recently. CNN's Ghazi Balkiz contributed to this report.

by reuters - Aoun told Saudi Arabia’s envoy on Friday that Hariri must return to Lebanon and the circumstances surrounding his resignation as prime minister while in Saudi Arabia were unacceptable, presidential sources said. An “international support group” of countries concerned about Lebanon, which includes the United States, Russia and France, appealed for Lebanon “to continue to be shielded from tensions in the region”. In a statement, they also welcomed Aoun’s call for Hariri to return.

Top Druze politician Walid Jumblatt said it was time Hariri came back after a week of absence “be it forced or voluntary”.Jumblatt said on Twitter there was no alternative to Hariri. In comments to Reuters, Jumblatt said Lebanon did not deserve to be accused of declaring war on Saudi Arabia. “For decades we’ve been friends,” he said.m“We are a country that is squeezed between two antagonistic interests, between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” he said. “The majority of Lebanese are just paying the price ... Lebanon can not afford to declare a war against anybody.”

Former Lebanese prime minister does not appear to be a prisoner in Saudi Arabia, say France and US

by Raf Sanchez and Henry Samuel, Paris Telegraph

“As you probably know [Hariri] is a dual citizen of Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. His family has been living in Saudi Arabia for quite some time by his choice, so the foreign minister assured me this was a decision taken solely by him,” Mr Tillerson said. He called for Mr Hariri to return to Beirut "so that the government of Lebanon can function properly" The French ambassador to Saudi Arabia met with Mr Hariri on Thursday, ahead of Mr Macron’s unscheduled visit. It was not clear if Mr Macron himself had any contact with the Lebanese politician. Paris has close ties with Lebanon, a former colony, and with Mr Hariri, who has a home in France after spending several years in the country. "Our concern is the stability of Lebanon and that a political solution can be put in place rapidly," Mr Macron said. Mr Hariri has met with Western diplomats since announcing his resignation on Saturday but has not been in contact with journalists nor many of his own closest advisors.

His own political party, the Future Movement, issued a statement suggesting he was being held against his will and saying his return to Lebanon was “necessary to restore the dignity and respect to Lebanon at home and abroad”. While Mr Macron’s two-hour visit to Riyadh was focused on the political crisis in Lebanon and the broader Middle East, it is also part the French leader’s broader effort to try to preserve Iran nuclear deal, which President Donald Trump is trying to renegotiate or potentially scrap. He warned ahead of his trip that scrapping the deal would push Iran towards developing nuclear weapons. "If you stop the 2015 agreement, what's your other option? To launch war? To attack Iran? I think it would be crazy in the region," he said. Mr Macron called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreed in July 2015 between Iran and six powers, including France and the United States, "the best possible deal regarding Iran." Mr Le Drian is due to visit Saudi Arabia next week and Iran shortly afterwards in an effort to try to ease the tensions which have inflamed the region and to shore up support for the nuclear agreement.

The world should push the crown prince to reform Saudi Arabia, not wreck it

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by economist.com - Article represents only the opinion of the author 

 The way the prince is going about enacting change is worrying. One reason is that his ambition too often turns to rashness. He led an Arab coalition into an unwinnable war in Yemen against the Houthis, a Shia militia, creating a humanitarian disaster. He has also sought to isolate Qatar, a gas-rich neighbour, succeeding only in wrecking the Gulf Co-operation Council and pushing Qatar towards Iran. With fewer constraints, he could become still more reckless. He is rattling the sabre at Iran over the war in Yemen, and may be challenging it in Lebanon. During a visit to Riyadh, the Saudi-backed Lebanese prime minister, Saad Hariri, announced that he would step down, and denounced interference by Iran and its client militia, Hizbullah (see article). What precisely the Saudis intend to do in Lebanon is unclear. But many worry about a return to violence in a country scarred by civil war and conflicts between Hizbullah and Israel.

Another concern is the economy. Prince Muhammad’s plan for transformation relies in part on luring foreign investors. But they will be reluctant to commit much money when someone like Alwaleed bin Talal, a prince and global investor, can be arrested on the crown prince’s say-so (see article). Last month Prince Muhammad made a pitch to foreign investors for a new high-tech city filled with robots, NEOM. The glitzy event took place in the same hotel complex that is now a prison.

A third cause for disquiet is the stability of the monarchy. Saudi rule has hitherto rested on three pillars: consensus and a balance of power across the sprawling royal family; the blessing of Wahhabi clerics; and a cradle-to-grave system of benefits for citizens. Prince Muhammad is weakening all three by concentrating power in his own hands, pushing for social freedoms, and imposing austerity and privatisation.

Much of this had to change. He could seek new legitimacy by moving towards greater debate and consultation. Instead, space for dissent is disappearing and executions are rising. The anti-corruption campaign is being carried out with little or no due process to determine who is guilty of what. Many ordinary Saudis are cheering for now. But the arrests look like Xi Jinping’s purges in China, not the rule of law. As he meets resistance and his base narrows, the crown prince may rely increasingly on the security apparatus to silence critics. That would only repeat the mistakes of republican Arab strongmen: socially quite liberal, but repressive and ultimately a failure.

Many have predicted the fall of the House of Saud, only to be proved wrong. The most likely alternative to its rule, flawed as it is, is not democracy but chaos. The country would fragment and, in the scramble for its riches, Iran would extend its power, jihadists would gain a new lease of life and foreign powers would feel compelled to intervene.

The world must fervently hope that Prince Muhammad’s good reforms succeed, while urging restraint on his bad impulses. President Donald Trump is wrong to cheer the purge on. The West should instead counsel the prince to act with caution, avoid escalation with Iran and free political life at home. Prince Muhammad may be heeding the dictum of Niccolò Machiavelli that it is better for a prince to be feared than loved. But this advice comes with a rider: he should not be hated.

Lebanese PM's Fate in Doubt Amid Saudi-Lebanon Escalation

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By ZEINA KARAM and BASSEM MROUE, Associated Press BEIRUT (AP) — Saudi Arabia on Thursday ordered its citizens out of Lebanon in its first concrete action against the Mediterranean country, while officials in Beirut demanded the immediate return of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who abruptly announced his resignation last week in a television appearance from the kingdom, where he has been holed up since. The developments were the latest twist in the saga of Hariri, whose fate increasingly resembled a bizarre mystery-thriller that has gripped his nation and sent tensions soaring with Saudi Arabia. With the Lebanese government in limbo, officials in Beirut said they haven't heard from Hariri since he departed for Saudi Arabia last week. Hariri's own Future Movement party called Thursday for his immediate return home for the "dignity of the nation. Beyond a phone call on Saturday informing President Michael Aoun of his resignation, Hariri has not made contact with Lebanese officials. Aoun has said he would not accept the resignation until Hariri returns to the country and explains the circumstances of his decision to step down. Late Wednesday night, Hariri's private plane took off from Riyadh and flew back to Beirut — and Lebanese breathlessly awaited his arrival, only to discover he wasn't on board.

"How can they hold a prime minister?" asked a Hariri supporter in Beirut who gave only his first name, Abed, saying he feared retaliation for his comments. He said he was at a loss to know what to think, adding that if it turns out that the Saudis were indeed holding Hariri under house arrest "then they have humiliated the whole country by doing this." On Thursday, Hariri's Future Movement party delivered its sharpest rebuke yet over Hariri's absence, demanding that he be returned home immediately — the clearest sign so far that it believes he is being held by the Saudis against his will. "The return of the Lebanese prime minister, the national leader, Saad Hariri, and the head of the Future Movement, is necessary to restore dignity and respect to Lebanon at home and abroad," former premier Fouad Saniora said in the statement read on TV. The Riyadh government, meanwhile, after days of leveling threats against Beirut, ordered all Saudis living in or visiting Lebanon to depart "immediately," and warned against travel to the country. Saudi Arabia sees Hezbollah as a proxy of Iran amid a spiraling rivalry between the two regional Sunni and Shiite heavyweights. Saudi Minister for Gulf Affairs Thamer al-Sabhan warned earlier this month that his government would deal with Lebanon as a hostile state as long as the militant group Hezbollah was in the Lebanese government. The Lebanese unity government that Hariri formed a year ago includes Hezbollah members — the result of an implicit Saudi-Iranian understanding to sideline Lebanon from the other proxy wars in the region. That understanding came to an abrupt end with Hariri's resignation, throwing the country back into the forefront of the Sunni-Shiite regional conflicts.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who is currently visiting the United Arab Emirates, declined to discuss Hariri's resignation, saying only that he hopes Lebanon will have a new government soon. He was set to travel to Saudi Arabia later Thursday to discuss the situation in Lebanon and other issues. "We've had some contact but there's no reason to say anything officially regarding this," Macron said when asked if he had contact with Hariri. "So far, all I can say is we did not receive any requests" from Hariri for asylum, the French leader said.

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What Just Happened in Saudi Arabia? The Weekend Purge Explained

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This article does not represent khazen.org opinion.

by Danielle Pletka - This article first appeared on the American Enterprise Institute site. - By now, the news out of Saudi Arabia has had time to sink in. To review the bidding for those whose eyes are not often drawn to dateline Riyadh: Over the weekend, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) launched a new anti-corruption commission, arrested 11 (and probably more) senior government officials and super-rich Saudis, including Prince Alwaleed bin Talal (think Twitter, Citi, Uber), and axed the head of the Saudi Arabian National Guard, and others who may have represented a threat to the young would-be king’s “reform” campaign and bid for absolute power. To make sure private planes would not facilitate an escape, Riyadh’s private airport was shut down. In the same time frame, MBS summoned Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who arrived in Riyadh and promptly resigned his post as Prime Minister in Beirut. From Riyadh.

Oh, and there was a Yemeni rocket attack on Riyadh aimed for the international airport. And a Saudi helicopter carrying Prince Mansour bin Muqrin, son of a former crown prince and deputy governor of Asir province, crashed near the Yemeni border, killing all on board. A busy weekend indeed, and the Middle East and its watchers worldwide, always prone to wild gossip and conspiracy theories, gossiped wildly. Wait, I forgot to add: Jared Kushner was in Saudi Arabia last week and met with MBS. (Nudge nudge wink wink.) So what does it all mean? The honest answer from anyone but MBS should be, er, not sure. But we can speculate. Let’s dispense with the simple parts first.

• The helicopter crash was probably a coincidence and bad luck for those on board.

• The missile attack was also likely a coincidence of timing, though it should be seen as a sign that Iran, which arms the Houthi rebels now leading Yemen, is willing to expand the conflict and arm its proxies with increasingly potent weapons.

Why did Hariri resign?

• Let’s first answer the question, “Why was Hariri prime minister in the first place?” Lebanon went for two years without a government as Hezbollah refused to allow anyone not under their thumb to form a government.

Finally, Sunni political parties acquiesced in the appointment of the perennially-for-rent Michel Aoun for the reserved-for-Christians role of Lebanese president. And suddenly, Saad Hariri, son of the late Rafiq, also PM and assassinated by Syria for working with Hezbollah, was up for PM. Why? Sifting fact and fiction, the most plausible answer is that Hariri-fils was running out of cash. His company employees hadn’t been paid in almost a year. His own personal employees same. Saudi Arabia, which had bankrolled him once, was out of the game, having officially given up on Lebanon as a loss leader. So Hariri made peace with Hezbollah (i.e., with Iran) and was made PM. Being PM is key to having one’s hands on lots of money, and perhaps, for Hariri, it was the only way to replenish his coffers. This, at least, is the prevailing theory.

• But Hezbollah has the whip hand in Lebanon (and now in Syria, thanks to a supine White House and Russian-Iranian determination). So Hariri ended up doing a lot of business with Hezbollah.

That he didn’t like it he made perfectly clear, but needs must. And Saudi, which early in 2016 seemed to simply think washing its hands of Lebanon was enough, appears to have changed its mind. On this one, I agree with MBS. Lebanon is the key to the legitimization of Hezbollah. If you’re going to take a pass, you are giving Iran carte blanche in the Levant.

• Back to Hariri: He was in Saudi last week, returned to Beirut, and promptly received a delegation from Iran including Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to the Supreme Leader. “Terrorists and extremist and Takfiri movements are backed by the US, the Zionists and some regional countries that do not want stability, security, independence and unity among regional countries,” Velayati helpfully explained.

MBS, not being a twit, read “some regional countries” as Saudi Arabia, and decided the time had come to end Hariri’s charade. A plane was sent to Beirut to pick up Hariri, who was told to resign, and did. Is this how it happened? Feels like it, but then again, I wasn’t in the room. And neither MBS nor Hariri have called me to explain.

• Now Lebanon has no prime minister, but at least the mask is off, and Hezbollah no longer owns a legitimate government for itself.

What is MBS up to? Three alternate theories and One Big Thing:

• He is cracking down on genuine corruption in Saudi Arabia. OK, but for a guy who did this, getting religion on massive corruption and louche overspending feels a little, I dunno, fake.

• He wants the money. MBS could rake in hundreds of millions by expropriating corrupt assets. The reforms MBS has in mind will be costly, and Saudi Arabia is not as rich as many believe. In addition, the message has been sent: Do business with ME and no one else. That means more money.

• He is preparing to take over the crown when his father abdicates (and by abdicate, I mean the end to the quasi-“Weekend at Bernie’s” setup now extant in Riyadh) and wants to lay the groundwork for massive reforms and Saudi modernization.

That MBS is a modernizer should not be disputed. But his efforts heretofore — ending subsidies, intervening in Yemen, getting into a major fight with his neighbor Qatar — don’t suggest he is either terribly determined or a brilliant executor. Still, MBS is very clearly focused on ensuring his pathway to the throne is unimpeded. And over the last two years, he has done one thing very effectively: remove rivals.  Think of this as the Xi Jinping anti-corruption model.

• The One Big Thing: Everything is about Iran and the coming battle. That means anyone who has other ideas about how Saudi Arabia should position itself in the region (e.g. former crown prince Mohammad bin Nayef), anyone who does not want Saudi Arabia to leap into the 21st century (clerics, conservatives, etc), and anyone who believes accommodations should be made with Iran is out the door.

The anti-corruption campaign, ensuing purges, forced Hariri resignation, et cetera all fit into that overarching narrative.

Finally, here’s the problem:

MBS is 32. He has a lot of ideas, and while many of them are good, many of them are less good. He is also naïve, young, and being encouraged — make no mistake here — by the Trump administration. Iran is a dangerous force in the region, and it is in our and our allies’ interests to see that force rolled back. But I’m not certain that placing Saudi Arabia at the tip of the spear is the right or the most likely to succeed strategy.  And failure will come at a very, very high price. Something to consider.

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